{"id":24681,"date":"2021-06-03T00:04:11","date_gmt":"2021-06-02T16:04:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/?p=24681"},"modified":"2022-02-22T13:36:50","modified_gmt":"2022-02-22T05:36:50","slug":"%e3%80%90%e5%b0%88%e6%ac%84%e3%80%91%e6%b7%ba%e8%ab%87%e5%9b%a0%e6%9e%9c%ef%bc%9a%e6%98%af%e5%ae%97%e6%95%99%ef%bc%8c%e6%98%af%e5%93%b2%e5%ad%b8%ef%bc%8c%e4%b9%9f%e6%98%af%e7%a7%91%e5%ad%b8","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/24681\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u5c08\u6b04\u3011\u6dfa\u8ac7\u56e0\u679c\uff1a\u662f\u5b97\u6559\uff0c\u662f\u54f2\u5b78\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u79d1\u5b78"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u300c\u842c\u6cd5\u7686\u7a7a\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u4e0d\u7a7a\u300d\uff0c\u4f5b\u5b78\u4e0a\u6b64\u7a7a\u975e\u5f7c\u7a7a\uff1b\u53c8\u8aaa\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u901a\u65bc\u4e09\u4e16\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e16\u3001\u4eca\u4e16\u3001\u672a\u4f86\u4e16\u3002\u4e9e\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u300c\u5f62\u4e0a\u5b78\u300d\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u56e0\uff08cause\uff09\uff0c\u4e26\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u56db\u56e0\u8ad6\u300d\uff1a\u8cea\u6599\u56e0\uff08material cause\uff09\u3001\u5f62\u5f0f\u56e0\uff08formal cause\uff09\u3001\u52d5\u529b\u56e0\uff08efficient cause\uff09\u3001\u76ee\u7684\u56e0\uff08final 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Hume\uff09\u3001\u5f4c\u723e\uff08John Stuart Mill\uff09\u7b49\u4e5f\u90fd\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u56e0\u679c\u54f2\u5b78\u3002\u91ab\u5b78\u4e0a\uff0c\u503c\u5f97\u63a2\u7a76\u7684\u662f\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e5f\u8a31\u662f\u6e90\u81ea\u4ed6\u672c\u8eab\u7684\u672b\u671f\u764c\u75c7\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u6a5f\u8eca\u649e\u64ca\u662f\u5426\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u8089\u773c\u4e0d\u53ef\u898b\u5206\u5b50\u5c64\u6b21\u7684\u50b7\u5bb3\u9032\u800c\u52a0\u901f\u4e86\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff1b\u6cd5\u5f8b\u4e0a\uff0c\u76f4\u63a5\u6703\u9762\u5c0d\u7684\u554f\u984c\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u884c\u4eba\u7684\u5bb6\u5c6c\u63d0\u544a\u6a5f\u8eca\u9a0e\u58eb\u50b7\u5bb3\u751a\u81f3\u6bba\u4eba\u662f\u5426\u6210\u7acb\u3002\u54f2\u5b78\u3001\u91ab\u5b78\u6216\u6cd5\u5f8b\u89c0\u9ede\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u8ad6\u5404\u6709\u5176\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u53ca\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u8457\u773c\u7684\u662f\u80fd\u5426\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u5b9a\u7fa9\u56e0\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u6578\u5b78\u7684\u8a9e\u8a00\u4f86\u5b9a\u7fa9\u56e0\u679c\u76ee\u524d\u70ba\u6b62\u6700\u5ee3\u70ba\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6Donald Rubin\u65bc1978\u5e74\u63d0\u51fa\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5be6\u7d50\u679c\uff08counterfactual outcome\uff09\u6216\u6f5b\u5728\u7d50\u679c\uff08potential outcome\uff09\u67b6\u69cb\u3002\u800c\u53cd\u4e8b\u5be6\u72c0\u614b\u7684\u89c0\u5ff5\u6700\u65e9\u751a\u81f3\u53ef\u56de\u6eaf\u81f3\u5341\u516b\u4e16\u7d00\u7684\u8607\u683c\u862d\u54f2\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f11\u59c6\uff081748\uff09\uff1b\u5728\u7d71\u8a08\u6587\u737b\u4e2d\uff0c\u5eff\u4e16\u7d00\u521d\u6ce2\u862d\u6578\u5b78\u5bb6Jerzy Neyman\uff081923\uff09\u9996\u6b21\u5728\u96a8\u6a5f\u8fb2\u696d\u8a66\u9a57\u4e2d\u63d0\u53ca\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6James Robins\u57281986\u5e74\u5ef6\u4f38\u81f3\u591a\u91cd\u96a8\u6642\u9593\u8b8a\u5316\u7684\u56e0\u5b50\uff1b\u5728\u8cc7\u8a0a\u79d1\u5b78\u9818\u57df\u4ee5\u5716\u50cf\u7406\u8ad6\u70ba\u4e3b\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8ad6\uff08Spirites, Glymour and Scheines 1993; Pearl 1995\uff09\uff0c\u8207\u6f5b\u5728\u7d50\u679c\u67b6\u69cb\u4e4b\u7406\u8ad6\u57fa\u790e\u4ea6\u6709\u5171\u901a\u4e4b\u8655\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8981\u56de\u7b54\u4e0a\u8ff0\u554f\u984c\u662f\u5426\u5b58\u5728\u56f0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u64c1\u6709\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u662f\u4e0d\u8db3\u4ee5\u5224\u65b7\u7684\uff0c\u4ea6\u5373\u6211\u5011\u76ee\u524d\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\u662f\uff1a\u8eca\u798d\u767c\u751f\uff0cX=1\uff080\u70ba\u4e0d\u767c\u751f\uff09\uff0c\u4e4b\u5f8c\u75c5\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0cY=1\uff080\u70ba\u672a\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff09\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u75c5\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u7684\u9019\u500b\u8b8a\u56e0\u88dc\u5145\u70baY(X=1)\u6216Y(1)\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u662f\u5728\u8eca\u798d\u767c\u751f\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u8207\u5426\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u7684\u662fY(1)=1\u3002\u8981\u8ad6\u8b49\u56f0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8981\u984d\u5916\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff1a\u5982\u679c\u8eca\u798d\u4e0d\u767c\u751fX=0\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u75c5\u4eba\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u662f\u5426\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662fY(X=0)\u6216Y(0)\u70ba\u4f55\u3002\u5982\u679cY(0)=1\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u75c5\u4eba\u672a\u906d\u9047\u8eca\u798d\uff08\u5047\u8a2d\u9664\u4e86\u8eca\u798d\u5916\u5176\u5b83\u689d\u4ef6\u4e00\u6a23\uff09\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u75c5\u4eba\u9084\u662f\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\u5f88\u660e\u986f\u7684\uff0c\u8eca\u798d\u8207\u75c5\u4eba\u7684\u6b7b\u4ea1\u4e26\u7121\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff1b\u4f46\u5982\u679cY(0)=0\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u75c5\u4eba\u82e5\u672a\u767c\u751f\u8eca\u798d\uff08\u5176\u5b83\u689d\u4ef6\u4e00\u6a23\uff09\u7684\u8a71\uff0c\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u4e26\u4e0d\u6703\u6b7b\u4ea1\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u8eca\u798d\u7684\u78ba\u5c0e\u81f4\u75c5\u4eba\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u8ff0\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5be6\u8ad6\u8b49\u63d0\u4f9b\u660e\u78ba\u4e14\u76f4\u89c0\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8ad6\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662fY(X=1)\u2260Y(X=0)\u4ee3\u8868X\u548cY\u6709\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4f46\u662f\u5be6\u52d9\u4e0a\u6211\u5011\u5e7e\u4e4e\u7121\u6cd5\u53d6\u5f97\u5b8c\u6574\u7684\u53cd\u4e8b\u5be6\u8cc7\u6599\u3002\u4ee5\u8eca\u798d\u7684\u4f8b\u5b50\u800c\u8a00\uff0c\u4eba\u6b7b\u4e0d\u80fd\u5fa9\u751f\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7121\u6cd5\u8b93\u75c5\u4eba\u518d\u6b21\u5fa9\u6d3b\u3001\u56de\u5230\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u524d\u4e26\u5851\u9020\u4e00\u500b\u672a\u767c\u751f\u8eca\u798d\u7684\u53e6\u4e00\u6bb5\u4eba\u751f\uff0c\u4f86\u89c0\u5bdf\u4e00\u500b\u6708\u5f8c\u4ed6\u662f\u5426\u6b7b\u4ea1\u3002\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u8aaa\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u53ea\u80fd\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\u4e00\u534a\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u66fe\u767c\u751f\u8eca\u798d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ea\u89c0\u5bdf\u5f97\u5230Y(X=1)\uff0c\u672a\u767c\u751f\u8eca\u798d\u7684\u4eba\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53ea\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230Y(X=0)\u3002\u9664\u975e\u7269\u7406\u5b78\u80fd\u7a81\u7834\u5e36\u4f86\u6642\u5149\u65c5\u884c\u7684\u6280\u8853\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u56e0\u679c\u63a8\u8ad6\u50c5\u80fd\u6d41\u65bc\u7d19\u4e0a\u8ac7\u5175\u3002\u4e0d\u5e78\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u5982\u4e0a\u8ff0\u4f8b\u5b50\u7684\u55ae\u4e00\u500b\u9ad4\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u61c9\uff08individual causal effect\uff09\uff0c\u5728\u6c92\u6709\u5f88\u5f37\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4e4b\u4e0b\u662f\u7121\u6cd5\u8fa8\u8b58\uff08non-identifiable\uff09\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u500b\u9ad4\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u61c9\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u5b78\u5bb6\u8457\u773c\u7684\u662f\u7fa4\u9ad4\u7684\u56e0\u679c\u6548\u61c9\uff08population causal 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x=0 or 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id=\"attachment_21652\" style=\"width: 970px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-21652\" class=\"aligncenter size-full wp-image-24682\" src=\"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/3-1.png\" alt=\"\" width=\"960\" height=\"720\" srcset=\"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/3-1.png 960w, https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/3-1-300x225.png 300w, https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/05\/3-1-768x576.png 768w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 960px) 100vw, 960px\" \/><p id=\"caption-attachment-21652\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u5716\u4e00\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u6027\uff08causation\uff09\u548c\u76f8\u95dc\u6027\uff08association\uff09\u7684\u5340\u5225\u3002\u5716\u5f62\u4e2d\u5713\u5f62\u5c0f\u9ede\u4ee3\u8868Y=1\u7684\u767c\u751f\u3002\uff08\u4e0b\u5716\u91cd\u88fd\u6539\u7de8Hernan and Robins\u4e4b\u57161.1\uff09<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u53c3\u8003\u6587\u737b<\/p>\n<p>Hume, D. (1748). An <em>Enquiry Concerning Human Understanding<\/em>. Reprinted, 1958, LaSalle, IL: Open Court Press.<\/p>\n<p>Neyman, J. (1923). Sur les applications de la thar des probabilities aux experiences Agaricales: Essay des principle. Excerpts reprinted (1990) in English (D. Dabrowska and T. Speed, translators) in <em>Statistical Science<\/em> 5, 463-472.<\/p>\n<p>Rubin, D. (1974). Estimating causal effects of treatments in randomized and non-randomized studies. <em>Journal of Educational Psychology<\/em> 66, 688-701.<\/p>\n<p>Robins, J. (1986). A new approach to causal inference in mortality studies with sustained exposure period \u2013 application to control of the healthy worker survivor effect. <em>Mathematical Modelling<\/em> 7, 1393-1512.<\/p>\n<p>Spirites, P., Glymour, C. and Scheines, R. (1993). <em>Causation, Prediction, and Search<\/em>. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.<\/p>\n<p>Pearl, J. (1995). Causal diagrams for empirical research (with discussion). <em>Biometrika<\/em> 82, 669-710.<\/p>\n<p>Hernan, M. A. and Robins, J. M. <em>Causal Inference<\/em> (unpublished book draft)<\/p>\n<p>VanderWeele, T. J. (2015). <em>Explanation in Causal Inference: methods for mediation and interaction<\/em>. Oxford University Press.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u300c\u842c\u6cd5\u7686\u7a7a\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u4e0d\u7a7a\u300d\uff0c\u4f5b\u5b78\u4e0a\u6b64\u7a7a\u975e\u5f7c\u7a7a\uff1b\u53c8\u8aaa\uff0c\u56e0\u679c\u901a\u65bc\u4e09\u4e16\uff0c\u904e\u53bb\u4e16\u3001\u4eca\u4e16\u3001\u672a\u4f86\u4e16\u3002\u4e9e\u91cc\u58eb\u591a\u5fb7\u5728\u8457\u4f5c\u300c\u5f62\u4e0a\u5b78\u300d [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":24707,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_et_pb_use_builder":"","_et_pb_old_content":"","_et_gb_content_width":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[990,983],"tags":[],"acf":[],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24681"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=24681"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24681\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":24706,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/24681\/revisions\/24706"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/24707"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=24681"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=24681"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=24681"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}