{"id":24095,"date":"2021-02-25T00:03:23","date_gmt":"2021-02-24T16:03:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/?p=24095"},"modified":"2021-09-30T13:00:51","modified_gmt":"2021-09-30T05:00:51","slug":"%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%b4%a9%e5%a3%9evs%e7%96%ab%e6%83%85%e5%a4%b1%e6%8e%a7%ef%bc%8c%e5%8f%aa%e8%83%bd%e4%ba%8c%e9%81%b8%e4%b8%80%ef%bc%9f%e7%b6%93%e6%bf%9f%e5%ad%b8%e5%ae%b6%e6%89%be%e5%87%ba%e5%90%84","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/24095\/","title":{"rendered":"\u7d93\u6fdf\u5d29\u58devs\u75ab\u60c5\u5931\u63a7\uff0c\u53ea\u80fd\u4e8c\u9078\u4e00\uff1f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u627e\u51fa\u5404\u570b\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f73\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u300d"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u62da\u7d93\u6fdf VS \u9867\u6027\u547d\uff0c\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u53ef\u80fd\u517c\u9867\u55ce\uff1f<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u5e2d\u6372\u5168\u7403\uff0c\u5404\u570b\u7d1b\u7d1b\u796d\u51fa\u7684\u56b4\u683c\u624b\u6bb5\uff0c\u5c01\u57ce\u3001\u7981\u8db3\u3001\u908a\u5883\u7ba1\u5236\u3002\u4f46\u9019\u985e\u653f\u7b56\u5b9b\u5982\u96d9\u9762\u5203\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u4eba\u6d41\u63a5\u89f8\u3001\u50b3\u64ad\u75ab\u60c5\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6642\u885d\u64ca\u7d93\u6fdf\u3002\u6027\u547d\u8981\u9867\uff0c\u751f\u8a08\u4e5f\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e0d\u7ba1\uff0c\u653f\u5e9c\u8a72\u5982\u4f55\u64ec\u5b9a\u653f\u7b56\u624d\u80fd\u517c\u9867\u5169\u8005\uff1f\u7576 Covid-19 \u53ef\u80fd\u8da8\u5411\u5e38\u614b\u5316\uff0c\u5f9e\u56b4\u9632\u5b88\u96f6\u5bb9\u5fcd\u662f\u9577\u671f\u6700\u597d\u653f\u7b56\u55ce\uff1f\u4e2d\u7814\u9662\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u5718\u968a\u5efa\u69cb\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u904b\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5728\u5065\u5eb7\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u6b0a\u8861\u9593\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u9069\u5408\u5404\u570b\u7684\u6700\u4f73\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9632\u75ab\u662f\u516c\u885b\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u62d4\u6cb3<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u60f3\u50cf\u4e00\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f60\u73fe\u5728\u662f\u9632\u75ab\u5718\u968a\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u8005\uff0c\u6b64\u6642\u6b63\u8207\u5404\u9818\u57df\u5c08\u5bb6\u958b\u6703\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u7fa4\u5b78\u8005\u56b4\u53b2\u8b66\u793a\uff1a\u9632\u75ab\u5982\u4f5c\u6230\uff0c\u52d9\u5fc5\u56b4\u683c\u9650\u5236\u908a\u5883\u3001\u5728\u5bb6\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u7528\u76e1\u4e00\u5207\u624b\u6bb5\u628a\u611f\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u964d\u5230\u6700\u4f4e\u3002\u4f46\u53e6\u4e00\u7fa4\u5c08\u5bb6\u7acb\u523b\u51fa\u8072\u53cd\u5c0d\uff1a\u300c\u6c92\u9322\u4e5f\u6703\u6c92\u547d\uff01\u300d\u4ed6\u5011\u4e3b\u5f35\u9632\u75ab\u5fc5\u9808\u9069\u5ea6\u5bec\u9b06\uff0c\u76e1\u91cf\u7dad\u6301\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u624d\u4e0d\u6703\u628a\u4eba\u903c\u4e0a\u7d55\u5883\u3002\u5169\u908a\u722d\u5435\u4e0d\u4f11\uff0c\u4f60\u600e\u9ebc\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u5c0d\u8a31\u591a\u4eba\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u6216\u8a31\u76f4\u89c0\uff1a\u9632\u75ab\u9996\u9078\u61c9\u8a72\u662f\u6108\u56b4\u5bc6\u6108\u597d\uff0c\u6700\u77ed\u6642\u9593\u3001\u6700\u9ad8\u9632\u5835\u3002\u4f46\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u773c\u4e2d\uff0c\u7b54\u6848\u6c92\u6709\u9019\u9ebc\u65ac\u91d8\u622a\u9435\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e2d\u7814\u9662\u7d93\u6fdf\u6240\u52a9\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u6797\u8ed2\u99b3\u3001\u694a\u5b97\u7ff0\u548c\u8a2a\u554f\u5b78\u8005\u8a31\u6587\u6cf0\uff0c\u8017\u8cbb\u8fd1\u4e94\u500b\u6708\uff0c\u5efa\u69cb\u4e00\u5957\u91cf\u5316\u904b\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u8a66\u5716\u5728\u5065\u5eb7\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e4b\u9593\u6b0a\u8861\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u5404\u570b\u7684\u300c\u6700\u4f73\u9632\u75ab\u7b56\u7565\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u9694\u96e2\u5be6\u5728\u592a\u7121\u804a\u2026\u2026\u300d\u8ac7\u5230\u7814\u7a76\u52d5\u6a5f\uff0c\u4e09\u4eba\u534a\u958b\u73a9\u7b11\u5730\u8aaa\uff0c\u4f46\u4ed6\u5011\u96a8\u5f8c\u4e5f\u9ede\u51fa\u4e86\u5e7e\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u52d5\u6a5f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9996\u5148\uff0c\u65b0\u51a0\u80ba\u708e\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u767e\u5e74\u7f55\u898b\uff0c\u4f46\u89c0\u5bdf\u76ee\u524d\u7684\u570b\u5916\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u591a\u534a\u4ecd\u6709\u9650\u5236\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u7e3d\u9ad4\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5927\u591a\u5ffd\u7565\u570b\u8207\u570b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\uff0c\u6c92\u6709\u7d0d\u5165\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u89c0\u9ede\uff1b\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u5b78\u8005\u5247\u9bae\u5c11\u63a2\u8a0e\u662f\u5426\u6709\u5171\u901a\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u4e09\u4f4d\u5b78\u8005\u8a66\u5716\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u5730\u627e\u51fa\uff1a\u5728\u958b\u653e\u7d93\u6fdf\u9ad4\u4e2d\uff0c\u4ec0\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u6700\u4f73\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u95dc\u9375\u52d5\u6a5f\u662f\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u767c\u73fe\u6b0a\u8861\u5065\u5eb7\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u8b70\u984c\uff0c\u570b\u5167\u8f3f\u8ad6\u5e7e\u4e4e\u4e00\u9762\u5012\uff0c\u300c\u65b0\u805e\u88e1\u7684\u5b78\u8005\u5c08\u5bb6\u57fa\u672c\u90fd\u662f\u516c\u885b\u6216\u91ab\u5b78\u80cc\u666f\uff0c\u300d\u9632\u75ab\u662f\u516c\u5171\u885b\u751f\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u7684\u62d4\u6cb3\uff0c\u7562\u7adf\u5065\u5eb7\u91cd\u8981\uff0c\u4f46\u653e\u773c\u5404\u570b\uff0c\u9577\u671f\u5168\u5883\u95dc\u9589\u3001\u5c01\u57ce\u7981\u8db3\u5df2\u885d\u64ca\u773e\u591a\u7522\u696d\u548c\u5546\u5bb6\u7684\u71df\u904b\uff0c\u64ca\u57ae\u7121\u6578\u5bb6\u5ead\u751f\u8a08\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u554f\u984c\u4e5f\u4e0d\u53ef\u5ffd\u8996\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6642\u9867\u53ca\u516c\u885b\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u6700\u5c11\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u9078\u9805\u55ce\uff1f\u300d\uff0c\u6210\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5404\u570b\u570b\u60c5\u4e0d\u540c \u5ba2\u88fd\u5316\u627e\u75be\u75c5\u50b3\u64ad\u901f\u7387<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u5e36\u8457\u9019\u6a23\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u5718\u968a\u4ee5 2020 \u5e74\u521d\u81f3 7 \u6708 22 \u65e5\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u5efa\u69cb\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u904b\u7b97\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u6aa2\u8996\u4e0d\u540c\u689d\u4ef6\u5c0d\u75ab\u60c5\u64f4\u6563\u3001\u7d93\u6fdf\u640d\u5931\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7b2c\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5148\u4e86\u89e3\u5404\u570b\u75be\u75c5\u50b3\u64ad\u901f\u7387\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ed6\u5011\u4f7f\u7528\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u7684\u5e38\u7528\u6307\u6a19\uff1a\u57fa\u672c\u518d\u751f\u6578\uff08Basic Reproduction Number, R0\uff09\uff0c\u610f\u601d\u662f\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u611f\u67d3\u8005\u5e73\u5747\u6703\u50b3\u64ad\u7d66\u591a\u5c11\u4eba\u3002\u7576 R0 \u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u75be\u75c5\u64f4\u6563\u5feb\uff0c\u75ab\u60c5\u8d8a\u96e3\u63a7\u5236\uff1b\u82e5 R0 \u5c0f\u65bc 1\uff0c\u50b3\u67d3\u4eba\u6578\u8b8a\u5c11\uff0c\u75be\u75c5\u4fbf\u6703\u9010\u6f38\u6d88\u5931\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f46\u5373\u4f7f\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u7a2e\u75be\u75c5\uff0c R0 \u4e5f\u4e26\u4e0d\u662f\u7d71\u4e00\u7684\u3002\u300c\u6211\u5011\u6839\u64da\u6a21\u578b\u88e1\u4eba\u8207\u4eba\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u53c3\u6578\uff0c\u6216\u662f\u5404\u570b\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u7b49\uff0c\u53cd\u904e\u4f86\u63a8\u4f30\u8a08\u5404\u570b\u7684 R0\uff0c\u300d<\/p>\n

\u8a31\u6587\u6cf0\u89e3\u91cb\uff1a\u300c\u6bcf\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7684\u570b\u60c5\u3001\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\u90fd\u4e0d\u540c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u4e9e\u6d32\u4eba\u7fd2\u6163\u6234\u53e3\u7f69\uff0c\u6b50\u6d32\u4eba\u6253\u62db\u547c\u6703\u89aa\u543b\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u53bb\u300e\u5ba2\u88fd\u5316\u300f\u5404\u570b\u72c0\u6cc1 \u2500\u2500 \u7d50\u5408\u5404\u570b\u7684 R0 \u3001\u9632\u75ab\u63aa\u65bd\uff0c\u53bb\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u5c0d\u61c9\u7684\u6709\u6548\u50b3\u67d3\u6578\uff08Effective Reproduction number, Re\uff09\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u4ed6\u5011\u4e5f\u52a0\u5165 Dingel and Neiman \uff082020\uff09 \u7684\u300c\u5404\u570b\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u6307\u6578\u300d\u3001\u725b\u6d25\u5927\u5b78\u7684\u300c\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u6307\u6a19\u300d\u7b49\u91cd\u8981\u6307\u6a19\uff0c\u4f86\u505a\u70ba\u6a21\u578b\u5167\u7684\u904b\u7b97\u53c3\u6578\uff0c\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u300c \u5ba2\u88fd\u5316\u300d\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u4f9b\u5404\u570b\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u597d\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u4f46\u70ba\u4f55\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u8981\u7d0d\u5165\u6a21\u578b\uff1f\u539f\u56e0\u662f\uff0c\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u540c\u6642\u5f71\u97ff\u75ab\u60c5\u50b3\u64ad\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u694a\u5b97\u7ff0\u8209\u4f8b\uff1a\u300c\u50cf\u7f8e\u570b\u8089\u54c1\u8655\u7406\u696d\u3001\u6216\u662f\u4e9e\u99ac\u905c\u7684\u96e8\u6797\u5de5\u696d\u7684\u5de5\u4eba\uff0c\u5f88\u96e3\u5728\u5bb6\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4f7f\u5f97\u5de5\u4f5c\u5730\u5c31\u6210\u70ba\u7fa4\u805a\u611f\u67d3\u7684\u7834\u53e3\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u82e5\u4e00\u500b\u570b\u5bb6\u7522\u696d\u7684\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u6108\u9ad8\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u4e5f\u76f8\u5c0d\u6108\u5c0f\u3002\u570b\u5167\u5c01\u57ce\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u9084\u662f\u53ef\u4ee5\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u900f\u904e\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u88dc\u8db3\u7f3a\u53e3\u3001\u4e92\u901a\u6709\u7121\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u5c31\u53ef\u80fd\u964d\u4f4e\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u5408\u6d41\u884c\u75c5\u5b78\u3001\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u5404\u9805\u53c3\u6578\uff0c\u5efa\u69cb\u51fa\u6a21\u578b\u5f8c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\u958b\u59cb\u9032\u884c\u5404\u9805\u6a21\u64ec\u63a8\u7b97\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5be6\u65bd\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9632\u75ab\u653f\u7b56\u4e0b\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u8868\u73fe\u6709\u4f55\u5dee\u7570\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"

\u5404\u570b\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u3001\u570b\u969b\u8cbf\u6613\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff0c\u90fd\u53ef\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u75ab\u60c5\u50b3\u64ad\u8207\u7d93\u6fdf\u885d\u64ca\u3002\u53f0\u7063\u7531\u65bc\u88fd\u9020\u696d\u5360\u6bd4\u591a\uff0c\u5728\u9060\u8ddd\u5de5\u4f5c\u7684\u53ef\u884c\u6027\u6392\u884c\u4e0a\u7b97\u662f\u4e2d\u7b49\u570b\u5bb6\u3002
\u5716\u2502iStock<\/p><\/div>\n

\u6b32\u700f\u89bd\u5b8c\u6574\u7cbe\u91c7\u6587\u7ae0\uff0c\u8acb\u81f3\u7814\u4e4b\u6709\u7269\u5b98\u7db2\uff1a<\/strong><\/h2>\n

https:\/research.sinica.edu.tw\/covid19-containment-policy-economy\/<\/em><\/a><\/h2>\n

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