{"id":21520,"date":"2020-03-05T00:05:04","date_gmt":"2020-03-04T16:05:04","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/?p=21520"},"modified":"2021-08-26T09:10:41","modified_gmt":"2021-08-26T01:10:41","slug":"%e3%80%90%e5%b0%88%e6%ac%84%e3%80%91%e5%be%9e%e6%a8%82%e9%80%8f%e5%bd%a9%e7%9c%8b%e8%aa%8d%e7%9f%a5%e5%81%8f%e8%aa%a4%e7%9a%84%e5%8b%95%e6%85%8b%e6%a8%a1%e5%bc%8f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/21520\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u5c08\u6b04\u3011\u5f9e\u6a02\u900f\u5f69\u770b\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u6a21\u5f0f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u9762\u81e8\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u56e0\u7d20\u6642\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u505a\u6c7a\u7b56\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e00\u76f4\u662f\u8a31\u591a\u9818\u57df\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u7814\u7a76\u8ab2\u984c\u3002\u5176\u4e2d\u63a2\u7d22\u7684\u7126\u9ede\u4e4b\u4e00\uff0c\u662f\u8a2d\u6cd5\u627e\u51fa\u4e26\u4e14\u89e3\u91cb\u4eba\u5011\u5728\u53d7\u5230\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u6240\u8868\u73fe\u5728\u8a8d\u77e5\u4e0a\u7684\u504f\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

\u6709\u5225\u65bc\u4e00\u822c\u5229\u7528\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\u3001\u6216\u554f\u5377\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u672c\u6587\u85c9\u7531\u5206\u6790\u4e00\u7d44\u6a02\u900f\u5f69\u5238\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u7684\u9078\u865f\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5728\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u6709\u5927\u91cf\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u7684\u904a\u6232\u88e1\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u8a6e\u91cb\u7531\u65bc\u6a5f\u7387\u6240\u5c0e\u81f4\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u504f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4e26\u66f4\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5efa\u69cb\u5176\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u85c9\u8457\u4e00\u500b\u4f4e\u6210\u672c\u7684\u6a5f\u6703\uff0c\u5be6\u73fe\u8fc5\u901f\u6210\u70ba\u5343\u842c\u751a\u81f3\u5104\u842c\u5bcc\u7fc1\u7684\u9858\u671b\uff0c\u6a02\u900f\u904a\u6232\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u5927\u773e\u7684\u63a5\u53d7\u8207\u559c\u597d\uff0c\u81ea\u662f\u4e0a\u4e0d\u96e3\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u6587\u737b\u4e2d\u4ee5\u7d93\u6fdf\u7406\u8ad6\u6216\u5b9a\u6027\u65b9\u5f0f\uff0c\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u898f\u907f\u98a8\u96aa\u7684\u7406\u6027\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\uff0c\u9858\u610f\u53c3\u8207\u4e0d\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u5df2\u6709\u5ee3\u6cdb\u7684\u63a2\u8a0e\uff0c\u5c0d\u6295\u6ce8\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5b9a\u91cf\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u76f8\u61c9\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u5efa\u69cb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\uff0c\u537b\u986f\u5f97\u4e0d\u8db3\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6211\u570b\u516c\u76ca\u5f69\u5238\u4f9d\u64da1995\u5e747\u6708\u516c\u5e03\u65bd\u884c\u7684\u300a\u516c\u76ca\u5f69\u5238\u767c\u884c\u689d\u4f8b\u300b\uff0c\u81ea1999\u5e7412\u67081\u65e5\u958b\u59cb\u767c\u884c\u3002\u7b2c\u4e00\u4ee3\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u9078\u865f\u7684\u6a02\u900f\u5f69\u5238\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u7531\u53f0\u5317\u5bcc\u90a6\u9280\u884c\u65bc2002\u5e74\u53d6\u5f97\u6388\u6b0a\u71df\u904b\u3002\u6295\u6ce8\u65b9\u5f0f\u70ba50\u5143\u4e00\u6ce8\uff0c\u5f9e1\u523042\u90786\u500b\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u81ea\u884c\u9078\u865f\u8207\u96fb\u8166\u9078\u865f\u4e26\u884c\uff0c\u6bcf\u9031\u6416\u865f\u958b\u734e\u5169\u6b21\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5206\u6790\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u662f2002\u82072003\u5169\u5e74\uff0c\u9023\u7e8c\u5171203\u671f\u6a02\u900f\u5f69\u52b5\uff0c\u81ea\u9078\u865f\u78bc\u7d44\u5408\u7684\u5168\u90e8\u7d00\u9304(\u671f\u9593\u81ea\u9078\u865f\u78bc\u5f69\u7968\u552e\u51fa1,679,676,226\u5f35\uff0c\u4f54\u7e3d\u92b7\u552e\u768461%)\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u3001\u4e09\u500b\u56e0\u7d20<\/h3>\n

\u8cc7\u6599\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u6a02\u900f\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u9078\u53d6\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u53d7\u5230\u4e09\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\uff1a\u4e0a\u4e00\u671f\u958b\u734e\u7684\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u865f\u78bc\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u4e2d\u734e\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4e0a\u4e00\u671f\u6a02\u900f\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u865f\u78bc[1]\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u5206\u5225\u7c21\u8ff0\uff0c\u9019\u4e09\u500b\u56e0\u7d20\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u7684\u9078\u865f\u884c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff08\u4e00\uff09\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4 (the gambler\u2019s fallacy)<\/h3>\n

\u5728\u7d14\u7cb9\u662f\u7531\u6a5f\u7387\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8f38\u8d0f\u7684\u8ced\u535a\u904a\u6232\u88e1\uff0c\u7d93\u5e38\u53ef\u4ee5\u770b\u5230\uff0c\u53c3\u8207\u7684\u8ced\u5f92\u6709\u7a2e\u50be\u5411\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u7576\u671f\u7684\u7d50 \u679c\uff0c\u4e0d\u6703\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u91cd\u8907\u51fa\u73fe\u3002\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u932f\u8aa4\u8a6e\u91cb\u6a5f\u7387\u6cd5\u5247\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\uff0c\u6587\u737b\u4e2d\u7a31\u4e4b\u70ba\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\u3002 Tversky \u8207 Kahneman (2002\u5e74\u8afe\u8c9d\u723e\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u734e\u5f97\u4e3b)\u5c07\u5176\u64f4\u5145\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u300c\u5c0f\u6578\u6cd5\u5247\u300d(the law of small numbers)\u73fe\u8c61[2]\uff0c\u4e26\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\uff0c\u5c07\u6b64\u73fe\u8c61\u6b78\u56e0\u65bc\u4ee3\u8868\u6027\u7c21\u6377\u63a8\u8ad6\u6cd5 (representativeness heuristic)\u6240\u9020\u6210\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4[3]\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u6211\u5011\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6a02\u900f\u8cc7\u6599\u70ba\u4f8b\uff0c\u5716\u4e00(A)\u7684\u85cd\u8272\u6298\u7dda\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u6c34\u5e73\u5ea7\u6a19\u70ba x \u7684\u5be6\u5fc3\u4e09\u89d2\u5f62\uff0c\u5176\u5782\u76f4\u5ea7\u6a19\u8868\u793a\u7b2c t \u6b21\u904a\u6232\u76846 \u500b\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c t+x \u6b21\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u88ab\u9078\u53d6\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u983b\u7387(\u5c0d 6 \u500b\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u8cc7\u6599\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u7684\u5404\u500b t \u6b21\u904a\u6232\u505a\u5e73\u5747)\u3002 \u540c\u6a23\u5728\u7d05\u8272\u9ede\u7dda\u4e0a\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u6c34\u5e73\u5ea7\u6a19\u70ba x \u7684\u6b63\u65b9\u5f62\uff0c\u5176\u5782\u76f4\u5ea7\u6a19\u8868\u793a\uff0c\u7b2c t \u6b21\u904a\u6232\u768436\u500b\u975e\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u5728\u7b2c t+x \u6b21\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u88ab\u9078\u53d6\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u983b\u7387 (\u5c0d 36 \u500b\u975e\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u4ee5\u53ca\u8cc7\u6599\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u5404\u500b t \u6b21\u904a\u6232\u505a\u5e73\u5747)\u3002 \u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u82e5\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u9078\u865f\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u865f\u78bc\u88ab\u9078\u4e2d\u7684\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u61c9\u8a72\u8fd1\u4f3c1\/42=0.0238\u3002 \u5716\u4e00(A)\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u88ab\u9078\u53d6\u7684\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u660e\u986f\u7684\u5f9e\u63a5\u8fd10.0238\u4e0b\u964d\u52300.019 \uff0c\u6e1b\u5c11 0.0046 (p<0.001)\uff0c\u975e\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u88ab\u9078\u53d6\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u7dad\u6301\u57280.0238\u9644\u8fd1\uff0c\u53ea\u6709\u5fae\u5e45\u6ce2\u52d5\uff0c\u5169\u76f8\u5c0d\u7167\uff0c\u6e05\u695a\u8868\u793a\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u5b58\u5728\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\uff08\u4e8c\uff09\u6a5f\u5668\u6709\u554f\u984c<\/h3>\n

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 <\/p>\n

\uff08\u4e09\uff09\u9078\u865f\u5982\u540c\u8993\u98df<\/h3>\n

\u5716\u4e00(A)\u8207(B) \u5747\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9078\u4e2d\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u96d6\u7136\u53d7\u5230\u8ced\u5f92\u8b2c\u8aa4\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u800c\u4e0b\u8dcc\uff0c\u4f46\u4e4b\u5f8c\uff0c\u9010\u6f38\u722c\u5347\uff0c\u6062\u5fa9\u81f3\u96a8\u6a5f\u9078\u53d6\u983b\u7387\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u6c34\u6e96\u3002\u6211\u5011\u89c0\u5bdf\u5230\uff0c\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9078\u4e2d\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u5373\u4f7f\u6c92\u6709\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff0c\u4ea6\u5448\u73fe\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u65b9\u5411\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u7531\u4e0a\u5411\u4e0b\u7684\u73fe\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u5716\u4e8c(A) \u4e2d\uff0c\u7d05\u8272\u6b63\u65b9\u5f62\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7576\u671f\u975e\u71b1\u9580\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u7d44\u4e2d(\u5982\u5716\u4e00(B)\u6240\u5b9a\u7fa9)\uff0c\u524d\u4e09\u500b\u9078\u53d6\u983b\u7387\u6700\u9ad8\uff0c\u4f46\u537b\u672a\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u7684\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9078\u53d6\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u85cd\u8272\u5be6\u5fc3\u5713\u7684\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u5247\u4ee3\u8868\u540c\u6a23\u4e09\u500b\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u88ab\u9078\u53d6\u7684\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u8cc7\u6599\u6709203\u671f\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u5e8f\u5217\u7e3d\u5171\u6709104\u500b\u6642\u9593\u9ede\uff0c\u8207\u5716\u4e8c(A)\u53cd\u9762\u5c0d\u7a31\uff0c\u5716\u4e8c(B)\u4e2d\u7684\u85cd\u8272\u5be6\u5fc3\u5713\u7684\u6642\u9593\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u4ee3\u8868\u7576\u671f\u51b7\u9580\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u7d44\u4e2d(\u5982\u5716\u4e00(B)\u6240\u5b9a\u7fa9)\uff0c\u4e09\u500b\u9078\u53d6\u983b\u7387\u6700\u4f4e\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u6c92\u6709\u4e2d\u734e\u7684\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9078\u53d6\u983b\u7387\uff0c\u800c\u7d05\u8272\u6b63\u65b9\u5f62\u7684\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u5247\u4ee3\u8868\u540c\u6a23\u4e09\u500b\u865f\u78bc\uff0c\u5728\u4e0b\u4e00\u671f\u88ab\u9078\u53d6\u7684\u983b\u7387\u8cc7\u6599\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5716\u4e8c(A)\u53ca(B)\u7684\u85cd\u8272\u5be6\u5fc3\u5713\u8207\u7d05\u8272\u6b63\u65b9\u5f62\u7684\u5169\u7d44\u6578\u5217\uff0c\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u660e\u986f\u6709\u9ad8\u4f4e\u4e4b\u5206\uff0c\u5c0d\u5176\u5206\u5225\u9032\u884c\u914d\u5c0d t \u6aa2\u9a57\uff0c\u5169\u7d44\u6578\u5217\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u5dee\u8ddd\uff0c\u5206\u5225\u70ba -0.0019 \uff08= 0.0292 – 0.0311 ) \u548c 0.0025 \uff08= 0.0183 – 0.0158\uff09\u3002\u5747\u6709\u986f\u8457\u5dee\u7570\uff08p < 0.001)\uff09\u3002\u5716\u4e8c(A)\u8207(B)\u986f\u793a\uff0c\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u9078\u865f\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u985e\u4f3c\u8993\u98df\uff0c\u6703\u53bb\u66fe\u7d93\u767c\u73fe\u6709\u98df\u7269\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u8a66\u8a66\uff0c\u4e00\u65e6\u5e0c\u671b\u843d\u7a7a\uff0c\u5247\u6613\u5730\u4ed6\u6c42(\u5982\u5716\u4e8c(A))\uff0c\u76ee\u6a19\u5247\u662f\u66fe\u7d93\u767c\u73fe\u6709\u98df\u7269\uff0c\u4e14\u4e4b\u524d\u8f03\u5c11\u53bb\u7684\u5730\u65b9(\u5982\u5716\u4e8c(B))\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e8c\u3001\u5ef6\u4f38\u8207\u7d50\u8a9e<\/h3>\n

\u5229\u7528\u524d\u8ff0\u4e09\u9805\u56e0\u7d20\uff1a\u8ced\u5f92\u7684\u8b2c\u8aa4\uff0c\u71b1\u9580\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\u7684\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9078\u53d6\u865f\u78bc\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5f15\u9032\u4e0b\u9762\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\uff1a<\/p>\n

Q(i,t) = \u03b1 + \u03b2_1Q(i,t-1) + \u03b2_2HIT(i,t-1) + \u03b2_3HOT(i,t-1) + \u03b5(t)\uff0c(1)<\/p>\n

\u4ee5\u95e1\u8ff0\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u9078\u865f\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u52d5\u614b\u7d50\u69cb\u3002 \u6a21\u578b(1)\u4e2d\uff0c\u8b8a\u6578Q(i,t) \u662f\u6a02\u900f\u73a9\u5bb6\u5728\u7b2c t \u671f\u6642\u9078\u53d6\u865f\u78bc i \u7684\u5e73\u5747\u983b\u7387\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u865f\u78bc i \u5728\u7b2c t-1\u671f\u70ba\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\u78bc\uff0cHIT(i,t-1) \u7684\u503c\u70ba -1\uff0c\u5426\u5247\u70ba 0\uff1b\u5982\u679c\u865f\u78bc i \u5728\u7b2c t-1 \u671f\uff0c\u70ba\u4e4b\u524d\u5716\u4e00(B)\u6240\u5b9a\u7fa9\u7684\u71b1\u9580\u4e2d\u734e\u865f\uff0cHOT(i,t-1) \u7684\u503c \u70ba +1, \u5426\u5247\u70ba 0 \u3002 \u7d71\u8a08\u5206\u6790\u7684\u7d50\u679c \u03b2_1\uff0c \u03b2_2\u8207 \u03b2_3\uff0c\u5747\u986f\u8457\u70ba\u6b63 (p < 0.001) \uff0c\u89e3\u91cb\u529b\u9054\u5230 0.6670\u3002\u8b8a\u6578\u503c\u70ba\u6b63\u7684\u03b2_1\uff0c\u53cd\u61c9\u7b2c\u4e09\u9805\u56e0\u7d20\u6240\u63cf\u7e6a\uff0c\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u9078\u865f\u884c\u70ba\u6709\u56de\u6b78\u5e73\u5747\u503c\u7684\u73fe\u8c61 \uff0c \u03b2_2\u8207 \u03b2_3\u986f\u8457\u70ba\u6b63\uff0c\u5247\u5206\u5225\u8b49\u5be6\uff0c\u6295\u6ce8\u8005\u53d7\u5230\u7b2c\u4e00\u8207\u7b2c\u4e8c\u9805\u56e0\u7d20\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u800c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u8a8d\u77e5\u504f\u8aa4\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u5408\u50b3\u7d71\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u8207\u65b0\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4ecb\u7d39\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u96a8\u6a5f\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c31\u4e00\u500b\u771f\u5be6\u6a5f\u7387\u904a\u6232\uff0c\u523b\u5283\u5176\u5927\u91cf\u53c3\u8207\u8005\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u884c\u70ba\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u66f4\u6df1\u5165\u7684\u4e86\u89e3\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u56e0\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u800c\u9020\u6210\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u504f\u8aa4\uff0c\u985e\u4f3c\u7684\u6642\u9593\u5e8f\u5217\u6a21\u578b\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e5f\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f5c\u70ba\u5206\u6790\u5176\u4ed6\u6a5f\u6703\u904a\u6232\u8cc7\u6599\u7684\u501f\u93e1\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53c3\u8003\u6587\u737b<\/h3>\n

[1] Ho, H.-C, Lee, S.C., and Lin, H.W. (2019). Modeling of how lotto players select their number combinations dynamically. International Gambling Studies,19, 200-219.
\n[2] Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1971). Belief in the law of small numbers. Psychological Bulletins,
\n76, 105-110.
\n[3] Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1974). Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases.
\nScience,185, 1124-1131.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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