{"id":1468,"date":"2018-06-07T08:00:57","date_gmt":"2018-06-07T00:00:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/?p=1468"},"modified":"2021-08-12T15:37:10","modified_gmt":"2021-08-12T07:37:10","slug":"%e8%87%ba%e7%81%a3%e6%b0%a3%e5%80%99%e6%a8%a1%e6%93%ac%e7%b3%bb%e7%b5%b1-%e6%8e%a2%e7%b4%a2%e6%b0%a3%e5%80%99%e7%9a%84%e5%89%8d%e4%b8%96%e4%bb%8a%e7%94%9f%e8%88%87%e4%be%86%e4%b8%96","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/1468\/","title":{"rendered":"\u3010\u5c08\u6b04\u3011\u81fa\u7063\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71\u2014\u63a2\u7d22\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u524d\u4e16\u4eca\u751f\u8207\u4f86\u4e16"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u6458\u8981<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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\u4e00\u3001\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u5a01\u8105<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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\u4e8c\u3001\u81fa\u7063\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u5efa\u69cb:<\/strong>\u5f37\u5316\u80fd\u529b\u3001\u63a2\u7d22\u8b8a\u5316\u3001\u63a8\u4f30\u672a\u4f86 <\/strong><\/h2>\n

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    \n
  • \u570b\u5167\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u529b\u6574\u5408<\/strong>:\u4ee5\u4e2d\u592e\u7814\u7a76\u9662\u74b0\u5883\u8b8a\u9077\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u70ba\u6838\u5fc3\uff0c\u8207\u570b\u5167\u5404\u5927\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5efa\u7acb\u6a21\u5f0f\u958b\u767c\u5e73\u53f0\u3002<\/li>\n
  • \u4ee5\u65e2\u6709\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong>\u70ba\u767c\u5c55\u57fa\u790e<\/strong>:\u5f15\u9032\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u5927\u6c23\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u793e\u7fa4\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f(CESM1)\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u6d77\u6d0b\u8207\u5927\u6c23\u5c40\u5730\u7403\u7269\u7406\u52d5\u529b\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u7684\u9ad8\u89e3\u6790\u5927\u6c23\u6a21\u5f0f(HiRAM)\uff0c\u8207\u539f\u958b\u767c\u55ae\u4f4d\u5bc6\u5207\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u6539\u5584\u6a21\u5f0f\u4e2d\u7684\u7269\u7406\u6a21\u7d44\uff0c\u4f7f\u4e4b\u6210\u70ba\u570b\u5167\u53ef\u4ee5\u81ea\u884c\u7814\u767c\u6539\u9032\u7684\u793e\u7fa4\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
      \n
    1. \u81fa\u7063\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f<\/strong>(Taiwan Earth System Model, TaiESM)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

      \u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f\u9867\u540d\u601d\u7fa9\u5305\u62ec\u5927\u6c23\u3001\u6d77\u6d0b\u3001\u9678\u5730\u3001\u51b0\u96ea\u3001\u690d\u88ab\u7b49\u6c23\u5019\u5b50\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u6a21\u64ec\u5404\u5b50\u7cfb\u7d71\u5167\u7684\u8907\u96dc\u7269\u7406\u8207\u5316\u5b78\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u4e14\u80fd\u6a21\u64ec\u5404\u5b50\u7cfb\u7d71\u9593\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u4eba\u70ba\u6216\u81ea\u7136\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u8207\u6c23\u81a0\u6392\u653e\u5c0d\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u5f71\u97ff(\u5716\u4e00)\u3002\u9019\u985e\u6a21\u5f0f\u5f8c\u8005\u4e5f\u662f\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u8de8\u653f\u5e9c\u5c08\u9580\u59d4\u6703(IPCC)\u8a55\u4f30\u8207\u64b0\u5beb\u6b77\u6b21\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u8a55\u4f30\u5831\u544a\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9d\u64da\u3002<\/p>\n

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      \"\"

      \u5716\u4e00\u3001\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f\u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u7269\u7406\u8207\u5316\u5b78\u904e\u7a0b(\u4fee\u6539\u81ea2007\u5e74IPCC\u5831\u544a)<\/p><\/div>\n

      \u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4ee5\u81fa\u7063\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f\u9032\u884c\u9577\u671f\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u8a55\u4f30\u6a21\u64ec\u591a\u500b\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u6578(\u5982\u6eab\u5ea6\u3001\u96e8\u91cf\u3001\u98a8\u5834\u8207\u5927\u6c23\u8f3b\u5c04\u7b49)\u9577\u671f\u5e73\u5747\u5834\u7684\u6574\u9ad4\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u767c\u73fe\u512a\u65bc\u5927\u591a\u6578\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6574\u9ad4\u4e0a\u4e5f\u6bd4\u539f\u751f\u6a21\u5f0fCESM1\u8868\u73fe\u597d\u3002\u518d\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6bd4\u8f03\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u5316(\u5982\u4e9e\u6d32\u5b63\u98a8\u3001\u5b63\u7bc0\u5167\u8b8a\u5316)\u4e5f\u6709\u660e\u986f\u6539\u5584\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u5206\u6790\u7d50\u679c\u8b49\u5be6\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u6578\u5e74\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u7d0d\u5165\u6709\u81fa\u7063\u7814\u7a76\u7279\u8272\u7684\u6a21\u7d44\u5f8c\u5b8c\u6210\u7684\u81fa\u7063\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u6709\u5176\u8a2d\u8a08\u7368\u7279\u4e4b\u8655\uff0c\u8207\u570b\u969b\u8457\u540d\u6c23\u5019\u55ae\u4f4d\u7684\u6a21\u5f0f\u76f8\u6bd4\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec\u6c23\u5019\u80fd\u529b\u6beb\u4e0d\u905c\u8272\u3002<\/p>\n

        \n
      1. \u9ad8\u89e3\u6790\u5927\u6c23\u6a21\u5f0f(HiRAM)<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

        HiRAM\u662f\u81fa\u7063\u65c5\u7f8e\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u6797\u5148\u5efa\u535a\u58eb\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u9ad8\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6c23\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5176\u52d5\u529b\u67b6\u69cb\u70ba\u516d\u9762\u9ad4\u65b9\u584a\u5730\u7403\u7db2\u683c\u6709\u9650\u9ad4\u7a4d\u6cd5\u52d5\u529b\u6a21\u7d44\uff08FV3\uff09\u662f\u76ee\u524d\u6700\u9032\u6b65\u7684\u5168\u7403\u5927\u6c23\u6a21\u5f0f\u52d5\u529b\u6a21\u7d44\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002FV3\u65bc2017\u5e74\uff0c\u7d93\u904e\u8207\u591a\u7d44\u5927\u6c23\u52d5\u529b\u6a21\u7d44\u7684\u56b4\u683c\u8a55\u4f30\u6bd4\u8f03\u5f8c\uff0c\u88ab\u7f8e\u570b\u570b\u5bb6\u74b0\u5883\u9810\u5831\u4e2d\u5fc3\u63a1\u7528\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u4e0b\u4e00\u4ee3\u5168\u7403\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u7cfb\u7d71\u7684\u9aa8\u5e79\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u65bc2011\u5e74\u5c07HiRAM\u5efa\u7f6e\u65bc\u570b\u5bb6\u7db2\u8def\u8207\u9ad8\u901f\u8a08\u7b97\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u5fa1\u98a8\u8005\u9ad8\u901f\u96fb\u8166\uff0c\u4ee525\u820750\u516c\u91cc\u7684\u9ad8\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u73fe\u4eca\u8207\u672a\u4f86\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u9577\u671f\u6a21\u64ec\uff0c\u63a8\u4f30\u5728\u6eab\u5ba4\u6c23\u9ad4\u5927\u5e45\u589e\u52a0\u768421\u4e16\u7d00\u4e2d\u8207\u4e16\u7d00\u672b\uff0c\u5168\u7403\u5929\u6c23\u8207\u6c23\u5019\u7279\u6027\u7684\u8b8a\u9077\u3002\u9ad8\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6HiRAM\u6a21\u64ec\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u6975\u4f73\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u64ec\u92d2\u9762\u7279\u5fb5\uff0c\u4ea6\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u64ec\u51fa\u98b1\u98a8\u5927\u7565\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u8207\u6f14\u8b8a\u3002\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u4ee5\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u672a\u4f86\u6d77\u9762\u6c34\u6eab\u8b8a\u9077\u578b\u614b\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u591a\u7d44\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u6a21\u64ec\u3002\u9019\u9805\u6a21\u64ec\u6240\u9700\u8a08\u7b97\u8cc7\u6e90\u5341\u5206\u9f90\u5927\uff0c\u5728\u570b\u7db2\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u5927\u529b\u652f\u63f4\u4e0b\uff0c\u65b9\u5f97\u4ee5\u9806\u5229\u9032\u884c\u3002\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5c07\u6a21\u64ec\u6578\u64da\u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u570b\u5167\u5b78\u7814\u754c(\u5982\u81fa\u7063\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u63a8\u4f30\u8cc7\u8a0a\u5e73\u53f0)\u8a55\u4f30\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5c0d\u81fa\u7063\u5929\u6c23\u8207\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u885d\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u4e09\u3001\u806f\u5408\u570b\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u6a21\u64ec <\/strong><\/h2>\n

        \u9762\u5c0d\u4eba\u70ba\u6696\u5316\u7684\u5a01\u8105\uff0c\u4e86\u89e3\u5176\u662f\u5426\u5df2\u7d93\u5c0d\u5929\u6c23\u8207\u6c23\u5019\u9020\u6210\u660e\u986f\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4ee5\u53ca\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u8b8a\u9077\uff0c\u7d50\u5408\u89c0\u6e2c\u8207\u6a21\u64ec\u8a3a\u65b7\u5206\u6790\u4e86\u89e3\u904e\u53bb\u8b8a\u9077\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7528\u6a21\u5f0f\u63a8\u4f30\u672a\u4f86\u8b8a\u9077\uff0c\u662f\u4e3b\u8981\u7684\u570b\u969b\u6c23\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u8da8\u52e2\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u6574\u5408\u5168\u7403\u7814\u7a76\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u4e16\u754c\u6c23\u8c61\u7d44\u7e54\u8f44\u4e0b\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u6c23\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u8a08\u756b\u57281995\u5e74\u555f\u52d5\u8026\u5408\u6a21\u5f0f\u6bd4\u5c0d\u8a08\u756b(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project\uff0cCMIP)\uff0c\u6574\u5408\u5168\u4e16\u754c\u4e3b\u8981\u6c23\u5019\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\u5fc3\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u64ec\u80fd\u91cf\uff0c\u9075\u5faa\u570b\u969b\u8a8d\u5b9a\u7684\u6a21\u64ec\u7a0b\u5e8f\u5354\u5b9a\uff0c\u4ee5\u5404\u81ea\u7814\u767c\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6709\u7cfb\u7d71\u5730\u9032\u884c\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u6a21\u64ec\u8207\u63a8\u4f30\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7d50\u679c\u662fIPCC\u64b0\u5beb\u6b77\u6b21\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u8a55\u4f30\u5831\u544a\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u79d1\u5b78\u4f9d\u64da\u3002CMIP\u7b2c\u516d\u671f\u8a08\u756b(CMIP6)\u5df2\u7d93\u555f\u52d5\uff0c\u70ba\u9810\u8a08\u65bc2021\u5e74\u767c\u5e03\u7684\u7b2c\u516d\u6b21\u8a55\u4f30\u5831\u544a\u505a\u6e96\u5099\u3002\u7d93\u904e\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u8207\u570b\u5167\u540c\u4ec1\u7684\u52aa\u529b\uff0c\u81fa\u7063\u5df2\u7d93\u6210\u70ba\u5c11\u6578\u5177\u6709\u6a21\u64ec\u8207\u63a8\u4f30\u9577\u671f\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u7684\u570b\u5bb6\u4e4b\u4e00\u3002\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u5df2\u7d93\u6b63\u5f0f\u5411CMIP6\u767b\u8a18\u6210\u70ba\u7b2c32\u500b\u53c3\u8207\u5718\u968a\uff0c\u5c07\u63d0\u4f9b\u7531\u570b\u5167\u5718\u968a\u4ee5TaiESM\u8207HiRAM\u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u5354\u52a9\u63a8\u4f30\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u5c0d\u5730\u7403\u751f\u614b\u74b0\u5883\u8207\u4eba\u985e\u793e\u6703\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u885d\u64ca\u3002<\/p>\n

        \u56db\u3001\u5728\u5730\u5316\u61c9\u7528<\/strong><\/h2>\n

        \u81fa\u7063\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u6a21\u5f0f\u8207\u9ad8\u89e3\u6790\u5927\u6c23\u6a21\u5f0f\u90fd\u662f\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\u5206\u5225\u7d04\u70ba100\u820725-50\u516c\u91cc\u3002\u524d\u8005\u8003\u616e\u5f71\u97ff\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u7684\u5730\u7403\u7cfb\u7d71\u9593\u7684\u4ea4\u4e92\u4f5c\u7528\uff0c\u5f8c\u8005\u5247\u901a\u5e38\u4ee5\u524d\u8005\u63d0\u4f9b\u7684\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u6a21\u64ec\u524d\u8005\u7121\u6cd5\u89e3\u6790\u7684\u66f4\u5c0f\u5c3a\u5ea6\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u5982\u92d2\u9762\u3001\u98b1\u98a8\u7b49\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u7121\u6cd5\u6e96\u78ba\u6a21\u64ec\u53d7\u81fa\u7063\u5730\u5f62\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u5287\u70c8\u5c0d\u6d41\u8207\u8c6a\u96e8\uff0c\u6216\u71b1\u5cf6\u6548\u61c9\u7b49\u3002\u7406\u60f3\u4e2d\u7684\u7cfb\u7d71\u70ba\u524d\u8ff0\u7684\u7121\u63a5\u7e2b\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u6a21\u64ec\u5f9e\u5168\u7403(\u6578\u767e\u516c\u91cc)\u5230\u5340\u57df(\u6578\u767e\u516c\u5c3a)\u5c3a\u5ea6\uff0c\u540c\u6642\u8003\u616e\u5168\u7403\u6696\u5316\u9020\u6210\u7684\u5927\u5c3a\u5ea6\u8b8a\u9077\u5230\u5c0d\u5c40\u90e8\u8c6a\u96e8\u7684\u5f71\u97ff(\u5716\u4e8c)\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u76ee\u524d\u4ecd\u529b\u6709\u672a\u902e\u3002\u4e0d\u50c5\u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u79d1\u5b78\u74f6\u9838\u5c1a\u5f85\u7a81\u7834\uff0c\u5176\u6240\u9700\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u8a08\u7b97\u8cc7\u6e90\u4e5f\u975e\u76ee\u524dpeta\u7d1a(1015<\/sup>\uff0c\u6bcf\u79d2\u5343\u5146\u6b21\u904b\u7b97)\u8d85\u7d1a\u96fb\u8166\u80fd\u8ca0\u8377\u3002\u76ee\u524d\u968e\u6bb5\u6027\u7814\u7a76\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u591a\u662f\u4ee5\u5168\u7403\u6a21\u64ec\u8cc7\u6599\u9a45\u52d5\u6578\u516c\u91cc\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\u7684\u5340\u57df\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec\u5168\u7403\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5c0d\u5c0f\u5340\u57df\u5929\u6c23\u8207\u6c23\u5019\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5287\u70c8\u5929\u6c23\u73fe\u8c61\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u570b\u5167\u4e5f\u63a1\u53d6\u985e\u4f3c\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u5be6\u9a57\u5ba4\u5c07\u524d\u8ff0\u6a21\u5f0f\u7684\u6a21\u64ec\u8cc7\u6599\u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u570b\u5167\u5b78\u7814\u754c\uff0c\u4ee5\u5340\u57df\u6a21\u5f0f\u6a21\u64ec\u5728\u672a\u4f86\u6c23\u5019\u6696\u5316\u60c5\u5883\u4e0b\uff0c\u5f71\u97ff\u81fa\u7063\u7684\u98b1\u98a8\u3001\u8c6a\u96e8\u3001\u5348\u5f8c\u96f7\u9663\u96e8\u3001\u4e7e\u65f1\u3001\u71b1\u6d6a\u7b49\u73fe\u8c61\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u8b8a\u9077\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u8a0a\u518d\u63d0\u4f9b\u7d66\u5404\u9818\u57df\u53bb\u8a55\u4f30\u5c0d\u751f\u614b\u3001\u8fb2\u696d\u3001\u516c\u5171\u885b\u751f\u3001\u6c23\u8c61\u76f8\u95dc\u81ea\u7136\u707d\u5bb3\u3001\u6c34\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u90fd\u5e02\u8207\u570b\u571f\u898f\u5283\u7684\u885d\u64ca\uff0c\u518d\u64da\u4e4b\u898f\u756b\u56e0\u61c9\u672a\u4f86\u6c23\u5019\u8b8a\u9077\u61c9\u6709\u7684\u8abf\u9069\u4f5c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n

        \"\"

        \u5716\u4e8c\u3001\u7121\u63a5\u7e2b\u6a21\u64ec\u8207\u885b\u661f\u89c0\u6e2c(02Z 21 August 2015):(\u5de6)\u65e5\u672c\u5411\u65e5\u8475\u6c23\u8c61\u885b\u661f\u7167\u7247\uff0c(\u53f3)\u5229\u7528FV3\u70ba\u67b6\u69cb\u7684\u5929\u6c23\u9810\u5831\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u4ee56.5\u516c\u91cc\u7a7a\u9593\u89e3\u6790\u5ea6\uff0c\u6a21\u64ec50\u5c0f\u6642\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u96f2\u5716(courtesy of Linus Magnusson, ECMWF)\u3002<\/p><\/div>\n

        \u4e94\u3001\u7121\u63a5\u7e2b\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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