{"id":14497,"date":"2018-08-30T00:00:00","date_gmt":"2018-08-29T16:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/?p=14497"},"modified":"2021-08-12T14:31:53","modified_gmt":"2021-08-12T06:31:53","slug":"%e8%a1%a1%e9%87%8f%e3%80%8c%e4%ba%ba%e7%94%9f%e7%9a%84%e9%81%b8%e6%93%87%e7%b5%90%e6%9e%9c%e3%80%8d%e6%9c%89%e6%96%b9%e6%b3%95%e2%94%80%e2%94%80%e5%b0%88%e8%a8%aa%e8%a8%b1%e8%82%b2%e9%80%b2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/newsletter.sinica.edu.tw\/14497\/","title":{"rendered":"\u8861\u91cf\u300c\u4eba\u751f\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u7d50\u679c\u300d\u6709\u65b9\u6cd5\u2500\u2500\u5c08\u8a2a\u8a31\u80b2\u9032"},"content":{"rendered":"
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\u7d93\u6fdf\u8a08\u91cf\u7814\u7a76<\/strong><\/h1>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n
\u4eba\u751f\u7531\u4e00\u9023\u4e32\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u300d\u7d44\u6210\uff0c\u4e0d\u540c\u9078\u64c7\u6703\u5c0e\u81f4\u4e0d\u540c\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u5982\u4f55\u8861\u91cf\u4eba\u5011\u7684\u6289\u64c7\u5c0d\u5f8c\u679c\u6709\u4ec0\u9ebc\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u9019\u662f\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u611f\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u547d\u984c\u3002\u300c\u8861\u91cf\u300d\uff0c\u7e3d\u8981\u6709\u500b\u5ba2\u89c0\u4e14\u907f\u514d\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u8a08\u91cf\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u800c\u4e2d\u7814\u9662\u7d93\u6fdf\u7814\u7a76\u6240\u7684\u8a31\u80b2\u9032\u526f\u7814\u7a76\u54e1\uff0c\u5c08\u9580\u8a2d\u8a08\u7d66\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u300c\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u300d\u3002<\/div>\n
<\/div>\n
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\"\"

\u7372\u5f97\u5091\u51fa\u7814\u7a76\u734e\u3001\u5e74\u8f15\u5b78\u8005\u596c\u7b49\u773e\u591a\u734e\u9805\u7684\u8a31\u80b2\u9032\uff0c\u8207\u966a\u4f34\u4ed6\u5230\u8655\u904a\u6b77\u7684\u5c0f\u96de(\u81ea\u88fd\u7f8a\u6bdb\u6c08)\u3002
\u651d\u5f71\u2502\u5f35\u8a9e\u8fb0<\/p><\/div>\n

\u300c\u901a\u5e38\u8ddf\u89aa\u670b\u597d\u53cb\u8aaa\u6211\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\uff0c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u4ed6\u5011\u5c31\u6703\u554f\u6211\uff1a\u8981\u8cb7\u54ea\u652f\u80a1\u7968\uff1f\u300d\u8a31\u80b2\u9032\u7b11\u8aaa\u5927\u5bb6\u5c0d\u65bc\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u5370\u8c61\uff0c\u800c\u9019\u80cc\u5f8c\u4e5f\u53cd\u6620\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6027\u2500\u2500\u4eba\u5011\u5c0d\u65bc\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u300d\u7684\u7336\u8c6b\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u9810\u6e2c\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6bcf\u5929\u775c\u958b\u773c\uff0c\u4eba\u5011\u5c31\u9762\u5c0d\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u984c\u3002\u6709\u4e9b\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u5f8c\u679c\u7121\u50b7\u5927\u96c5\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u537b\u8b93\u4eba\u61ca\u6094\u300c\u5343\u91d1\u96e3\u8cb7\u65e9\u77e5\u9053\u300d\u3002\u9019\u770b\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u8a31\u80b2\u9032\u7684\u773c\u4e2d\uff0c\u662f\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u984c\u6750\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u4eba\u5011\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u505a\u67d0\u4ef6\u4e8b\uff1f\u5c0d\u7d50\u679c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u8a66\u5716\u8a2d\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u8861\u91cf\u3002<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\"\u554f\"\u5982\u4f55\u8861\u91cf\u300c\u6709\u505a\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6c92\u505a\u300d\u5c0d\u7d50\u679c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\u7b54\"\u9019\u662f\u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78<\/a>\u4e2d\uff0c\u300c\u8655\u7406\u6548\u679c\u300d\u63a2\u8a0e\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u300c\u6709\u505a\u67d0\u4e8b\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6c92\u505a\u67d0\u4e8b\u300d\u5c0d\u7d50\u679c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u9019\u4e2d\u9593\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u7d93\u904e\u67d0\u500b\u884c\u70ba\u300c\u8655\u7406\u300d\u4e4b\u5f8c\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u7d71\u8a08\u4e0a\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u5e73\u5747\u6578 (mean)\u3001\u5206\u4f48 (distribution)\u3001\u5206\u4f4d\u6578 (quantile) \u7b49\u91cf\u5316\u8cc7\u8a0a\u4f86\u5448\u73fe\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\"\"

\u8655\u7406\u6548\u679c (treament effect) \u7684\u6982\u5ff5\u3002
\u5716\u8aaa\u8a2d\u8a08\u2502\u6797\u5a77\u5afb\u3001\u5f35\u8a9e\u8fb0<\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

\u5176\u5be6\uff0c\u8655\u7406\u6548\u679c (treament effect) \u6700\u65e9\u6e90\u81ea\u65bc\u85e5\u5b78\uff0c\u6bd4\u8f03\u300c\u6709\u5403\u85e5\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u300d\u548c\u300c\u6c92\u5403\u85e5\u7684\u75c5\u4eba\u300d\uff0c\u5c0d\u65bc\u75c5\u60c5\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u986f\u8457\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u85c9\u4ee5\u4e86\u89e3\u67d0\u7a2e\u85e5\u7269 (treament) \u6cbb\u7642\u5f8c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u6548\u679c (effect)\u3002\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\u73fe\u5728\u666e\u904d\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u8a08\u91cf\u5b78\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u53ef\u7528\u4f86\u6bd4\u8f03\u300c\u5e73\u884c\u6642\u7a7a\u300d\u4e2d\u4eba\u5011\u9078\u64c7\u63a1\u53d6\u67d0\u7a2e\u884c\u70ba\u5f8c\uff0c\u7522\u751f\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u5dee\u7570\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

\"\u554f\"\u7814\u7a76\u300c\u8655\u7406\u6548\u679c\u300d\u4e3b\u8981\u56f0\u96e3\u4e4b\u8655\u3001\u8ddf\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6cd5\uff1f<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\u7b54\"\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u60f3\u7814\u7a76\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u300d\u5c0d\u65bc\u300c\u672a\u4f86\u7684\u6536\u5165\u300d\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\uff0c\u5c31\u5f97\u6bd4\u8f03\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6709\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u300d\u548c\u300c\u540c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u300d\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5dee\u7570\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f46\u73fe\u5be6\u4e16\u754c\u4e2d\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u540c\u6642\u8e0f\u4e0a\u5169\u689d\u4eba\u751f\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u5b58\u5728\u9078\u64c7\u65b9\u6848 A \u7684\u6211\uff0c\u5c31\u4e0d\u5b58\u5728\u9078\u64c7\u65b9\u6848 B \u7684\u6211\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5206\u6790\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u8cc7\u6599\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ea\u6703\u770b\u5230\u540c\u4e00\u4eba\u7684\u5176\u4e2d\u4e00\u7a2e\u72c0\u614b(\u6709\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\/\u6c92\u8b80\u5927\u5b78)\u3001\u8207\u73fe\u5728\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5340\u9593\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u9019\u662f\u7814\u7a76\u8655\u7406\u6548\u679c\u6700\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u5730\u65b9\u2500\u2500\u5982\u4f55\u63a8\u6e2c\u300c\u5e73\u884c\u6642\u7a7a\u300d\u4e2d\u53e6\u4e00\u7a2e\u7d50\u679c\uff1f<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\"\"

\u82e5\u5c07\u300c\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\uff0c\u5c0d\u6536\u5165\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\u300d\u9019\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u984c\u76ee\u8996\u89ba\u5316\uff0c\u5c31\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u4e86\u89e3\u300c\u7f3a\u4e4f\u6a23\u672c\u8cc7\u6599\u300d\u7684\u5206\u6790\u96e3\u984c\u3002
\u5716\u8aaa\u8a2d\u8a08\u2502\u6797\u5a77\u5afb\u3001\u5f35\u8a9e\u8fb0<\/p><\/div>\n

\u751f\u547d\u79d1\u5b78\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u53ef\u900f\u904e\u96a8\u6a5f\u8a66\u9a57 (random assignment<\/a>) \u4f86\u63a8\u4f30\u6a23\u672c\u8cc7\u6599\u3001\u5f97\u5230\u5206\u6790\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u7136\u800c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7121\u6cd5\u4f7f\u7528\u96a8\u6a5f\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u56e0\u70ba\u300c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u8b80\u5927\u5b78\u300d\u5728\u771f\u5be6\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e2d\u4e26\u975e\u4e1f\u9285\u677f\u96a8\u6a5f\u6c7a\u5b9a\uff0c\u800c\u662f\u53d7\u5230\u8a31\u591a\u300c\u89e3\u91cb\u8b8a\u6578\u300d\u5f71\u97ff\u6240\u505a\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5bb6\u5ead\u7d93\u6fdf\u72c0\u6cc1\u3001\u7236\u6bcd\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7b49\u7b49\u3002<\/p>\n

\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u662f\u5148\u63a7\u5236\u9019\u4e9b\u89e3\u91cb\u8b8a\u6578\u5f8c\uff0c\u518d\u627e\u51fa\u500b\u4eba\u7279\u5fb5\u76f8\u8fd1\u7684\u6a23\u672c(\u4f8b\u5982\uff1a\u5bb6\u5ead\u5e74\u6536\u5165\u76f8\u7576\u3001\u7236\u6bcd\u6559\u80b2\u7a0b\u5ea6\u76f8\u540c\u7b49\u7b49)\uff0c\u4f5c\u70ba\u5e73\u884c\u6642\u7a7a\u7684\u5c0d\u7167\u7d44\u2500\u2500\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u300c\u505a\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u6211\u300d\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u63a8\u4f30\u5c0d\u7167\u7d44\u7684\u6536\u5165\u5340\u9593\uff0c\u518d\u7d71\u8a08\u5206\u6790\u5169\u7d44\u6536\u5165\u7684\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u5982\u4e0b\u5716\u6240\u793a\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"

\u5047\u8a2d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u5728\u89e3\u91cb\u8b8a\u6578(\u500b\u4eba\u7279\u5fb5)\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0b\uff0c\u6703\u6709\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u9078\u64c7(\u662f\u5426\u8b80\u5927\u5b78)\uff0c\u90a3\u9ebc\uff0c\u63a7\u5236\u9019\u4e9b\u8b8a\u6578\u3001\u627e\u51fa\u500b\u4eba\u7279\u5fb5\u76f8\u8fd1\u8005\uff0c\u5c31\u80fd\u4f5c\u70ba\u300c\u505a\u51fa\u53e6\u4e00\u500b\u9078\u64c7\u7684\u6211\u300d\u7684\u5c0d\u7167\u7d44\u3002
\u5716\u8aaa\u8a2d\u8a08\u2502\u6797\u5a77\u5afb\u3001\u5f35\u8a9e\u8fb0<\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

\u6211\u5011\u7684\u9019\u7a2e\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u7528\u4f86\u56de\u7b54\u5f88\u591a\u95dc\u65bc\u300c\u9078\u64c7\u7d50\u679c\u300d\u7684\u554f\u984c\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u5abd\u5abd\u7b2c\u4e00\u80ce\u61f7\u5b55\u671f\u9593\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u62bd\u83f8\uff0c\u5c0d\u65b0\u751f\u5152\u7684\u9ad4\u91cd\u662f\u5426\u6709\u5f71\u97ff\uff1f\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5be6\u8b49\u7814\u7a76<\/a>\u52a0\u4e0a\u300c\u5b55\u5a66\u7684\u5e74\u9f61\u300d\u505a\u6bd4\u8f03\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u7d50\u679c\u986f\u793a\uff1a\u5b55\u5a66\u7684\u5e74\u9f61\u8d8a\u5927\uff0c\u61f7\u5b55\u6642\u5438\u83f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u65b0\u751f\u5152\u7684\u8ca0\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\u8d8a\u986f\u8457\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f\u65b0\u751f\u5152\u7684\u5e73\u5747\u9ad4\u91cd\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u8d8a\u8f15(\u8a3b\u4e00)\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\uff0c\u8655\u7406\u6548\u679c\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4e5f\u53ef\u904b\u7528\u65bc\u6aa2\u8996\u793e\u6703\u798f\u5229\u653f\u7b56\u7684\u6548\u679c\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5206\u6790 National Supported Work Demonstration (NSW<\/a>) \u8077\u696d\u57f9\u8a13\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u4f86\u63a2\u8a0e\u300c\u6709\u6c92\u6709\u53c3\u52a0\u8077\u696d\u57f9\u8a13\u300d\u6703\u5426\u63d0\u5347\u672a\u4f86\u6536\u5165\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u6211\u5011\u7684\u5be6\u8b49\u7d50\u679c<\/a>\u986f\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u6709\u53c3\u52a0\u8077\u696d\u57f9\u8a13\u7684\u6211\u300d\u5de5\u4f5c\u6536\u5165\u78ba\u5be6\u6703\u6bd4\u300c\u6c92\u6709\u53c3\u52a0\u8077\u696d\u57f9\u8a13\u7684\u6211\u300d\u9084\u9ad8(\u8a3b\u4e8c)\u3002\u5fc5\u9808\u8aaa\u660e\u7684\u662f\uff0c NSW \u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u88e1\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u662f\u8f03\u96e3\u5c31\u8077\u7684\u65cf\u7fa4\uff0c\u5305\u542b\u8ca7\u56f0\u5bb6\u5ead\u7684\u5abd\u5abd\u3001\u5e74\u8f15\u8f1f\u5b78\u8005\u3001\u66f4\u751f\u4eba\u7b49\u7b49\uff0c\u4e26\u975e\u6307\u5927\u773e\u52de\u5de5\u6216\u4e0a\u73ed\u65cf\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

\"\u554f\"\u56de\u5230\u89aa\u670b\u597d\u53cb\u7684\u63d0\u554f\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u77e5\u9053\u8981\u8cb7\u54ea\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u55ce\uff1f<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\u7b54\"\u6211\u5011\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f9e\u591a\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4e2d\uff0c\u627e\u51fa\u54ea\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u60f3\u77e5\u9053 100 \u652f\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u54ea\u4e00\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u3002\u90a3\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u8a2d\u5b9a H0<\/sub>\u00a0\u865b\u7121\u5047\u8a2d\u70ba\uff1a\u300c\u9019 100 \u652f\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u6709\u4e00\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u5e73\u5747\u6578 \u2264 0\uff0c\u6216\u662f \u2264 \u81ea\u8a02\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u6578\u503c (benchmark value) \u300d\uff0c\u63a5\u8457\u7d71\u8a08\u6aa2\u5b9a\u9019 100 \u652f\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u54ea\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u6aa2\u5b9a\u7d50\u679c\u300c\u62d2\u7d55\u300d\u9019\u500b H0<\/sub>\u00a0\u865b\u7121\u5047\u8a2d\uff0c\u5c31\u662f\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u7684\u5229\u6f64\u5e73\u5747\u6578\u662f > 0\uff0c\u6216\u662f > \u81ea\u8a02\u7684\u6a19\u6e96\u6578\u503c\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u9700\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u7d71\u8a08\u6aa2\u5b9a\u904e\u7a0b\u5f88\u5bb9\u6613\u7522\u751f\u504f\u8aa4\uff0c\u4e5f\u5c31\u662f data snooping bias\u3002<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u82e5\u628a 100 \u652f\u80a1\u7968\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u5206\u958b t \u6aa2\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e14\u6bcf\u6b21 t \u6aa2\u5b9a\u90fd\u662f\u4ee5 95% \u4fe1\u5fc3\u6c34\u6e96\u57f7\u884c\u7684\u8a71\uff0c100 \u6b21 t \u6aa2\u5b9a\u7d2f\u8a08\u9ad8\u9054 0.994 \u7684\u6a5f\u7387\u6703\u8207\u5be6\u969b\u7d50\u679c\u6709\u504f\u5dee\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u7522\u751f\u4e86\u4e00\u7a2e\u7d71\u8a08\u504f\u8aa4\u7684\u554f\u984c (data snooping bias)\u3002\u7528\u767d\u8a71\u6587\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u9019\u554f\u984c\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u628a\u5176\u5be6\u4e0d\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u80a1\u7968\uff0c\u932f\u7576\u6210\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u7814\u7a76\u984c\u76ee\u662f\uff1a\u300c100 \u652f\u80a1\u7968\u4e2d\uff0c\u54ea\u4e00\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u300d\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u95dc\u65bc\u300c\u641c\u5c0b\u300d\u7684\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u5c31\u5f97\u540c\u6642\u8003\u616e\u597d\u5e7e\u767e\u500b\u5047\u8a2d\u548c\u8b8a\u6578\uff0c\u70ba\u4e86\u5f97\u5230\u8f03\u5065\u5168 (robust) \u7684\u7d50\u679c\uff0c\u9700\u6539\u6210\u806f\u5408\u6aa2\u5b9a (joint test) \u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"

\u82e5\u60f3\u627e\u51fa\u54ea\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\uff0c\u8981\u806f\u5408\u6aa2\u5b9a\u597d\u5e7e\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\uff0c\u4e0d\u80fd\u4e00\u500b\u500b\u55ae\u7368\u6aa2\u5b9a\uff0c\u85c9\u6b64\u63a7\u5236\u7d71\u8a08\u504f\u8aa4 (data snooping bias) \u3002
\u5716\u8aaa\u8a2d\u8a08\u2502\u6797\u5a77\u5afb\u3001\u5f35\u8a9e\u8fb0<\/p><\/div>\n

\n
\n

\u4ee5\u5be6\u969b\u6848\u4f8b\u4f86\u8aaa\uff0c\u8207\u7ba1\u4e2d\u9594<\/a>\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u8a31\u535a\u70ab<\/a>\u6559\u6388\u8a0e\u8ad6\u5f8c\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u53c3\u8003 stepwise Reality Check test (Romano and Wolf, 2005)\uff0c\u6539\u826f\u70ba\u00a0stepwise SPA test<\/a>\u00a0\u9019\u7a2e\u53ef\u4ee5\u5728\u591a\u500b\u9078\u9805\u4e2d\u9010\u6b65\u6e2c\u8a66\u7684\u806f\u5408\u6aa2\u5b9a\u6cd5\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u56de\u7b54\u300c\u5f9e\u591a\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u4e2d\uff0c\u641c\u5c0b\u54ea\u500b\u6295\u8cc7\u7d44\u5408\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u300d\u9019\u7a2e\u554f\u984c\u3002\u6211\u5011\u5957\u7528\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u5206\u6790\u6210\u9577\u548c\u65b0\u8208\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u6307\u6578\u80a1\u7968\u578b\u57fa\u91d1 (ETF)\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u4f50\u8b49\u67d0\u4e9b\u4ea4\u6613\u7b56\u7565 (technical trading rules) \u662f\u5426\u78ba\u5be6\u53ef\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c ETF \u7684\u8d70\u52e2(\u8a3b\u4e09)\u3002<\/p>\n

\u53e6\u5916\u4e00\u500b\u6848\u4f8b\uff0c\u5442\u5b97\u52f3<\/a>\u526f\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u9673\u5955\u5947<\/a>\u526f\u6559\u6388\u767c\u73fe\uff0c\u7576\u00a0K \u7dda\u00a0<\/a>(Candlestick chart) \u7684\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2\u51fa\u73fe\u67d0\u7a2e\u6a21\u5f0f\uff0c\u5c31\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u63a5\u4e0b\u4f86\u61c9\u8cb7\u5165\u3001\u6216\u8ce3\u51fa\u8a72\u652f\u80a1\u7968\u3002\u5442\u5b97\u52f3\u526f\u6559\u6388\u5e0c\u671b\u80fd\u7528\u56b4\u8b39\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u4f86\u6aa2\u5b9a\u9019\u7a2e K \u7dda\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u6703\u4e0d\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\uff0c\u6240\u4ee5\u627e\u6211\u5011\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u800c\u5be6\u8b49\u7d50\u679c<\/a>\u4e5f\u986f\u793a\u771f\u7684\u6703\u8cfa\u9322\u3002<\/p>\n

\u89c0\u5bdf K \u7dda\u7684\u80a1\u7968\u50f9\u683c\u8d70\u52e2\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5ef6\u4f38\u51fa\u5f88\u591a\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c07\u9019\u4e9b\u6295\u8cc7\u7b56\u7565\u5168\u90e8\u4e00\u8d77\u7528 stepwise SPA test \u6aa2\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e26\u63a7\u5236\u7d71\u8a08\u504f\u8aa4\uff0c\u8a73\u7d30\u7684\u8a08\u7b97\u904e\u7a0b\u90fd\u767c\u8868\u5728\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d(\u8a3b\u56db)\uff0c\u6709\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u53ef\u4ee5\u76f4\u63a5\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

\"\u554f\"\u70ba\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6703\u6295\u5165\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\uff1f<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\u7b54\"\u6211\u5176\u5be6\u6c92\u6709\u751f\u6daf\u898f\u5283\uff0c\u53ea\u662f\u7528\u300c\u522a\u53bb\u6cd5\u300d\u907f\u514d\u6211\u4e0d\u60f3\u505a\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u4eba\u751f\u9019\u9ebc\u77ed\uff0c\u8981\u505a\u6703\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u958b\u5fc3\u7684\u4e8b\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u4e2d\u8b80\u81ea\u7136\u7d44\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u4e0d\u559c\u6b61\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u76ee\uff0c\u5f8c\u4f86\u56e0\u70ba\u5c0d\u5de5\u79d1\u3001\u505a\u5be6\u9a57\u6c92\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u5927\u5b78\u5fd7\u9858\u5c31\u9078\u586b\u6578\u5b78\u7cfb\u3002\u8b80\u81fa\u5927\u6578\u5b78\u7cfb\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u9047\u5230\u5f88\u8070\u660e\u7684\u540c\u5b78\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7e7c\u7e8c\u947d\u7814\u6578\u5b78\u7406\u8ad6\uff0c\u6211\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u8d0f\u5f97\u4e86\u4ed6\u5011\u3002\u5927\u4e8c\u6642\u770b\u5230\u6709\u4e9b\u670b\u53cb\u9078\u4fee\u81fa\u5927\u7ba1\u7406\u5b78\u9662\u7684\u8ab2\uff0c\u6211\u60f3\u8a66\u8a66\u770b\u81ea\u5df1\u662f\u5426\u611f\u8208\u8da3\uff0c\u5c31\u958b\u59cb\u4fee\u7d93\u6fdf\u548c\u6703\u8a08\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u8da3\uff0c\u5728\u5f88\u597d\u73a9\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0b\uff0c\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f97\u5230\u9019\u4e16\u754c\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n
\n
\n

\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u6709\u4e00\u8aaa\uff0c\u5047\u8a2d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u90fd\u6709\u7406\u6027\uff0c\u6703\u5728\u6709\u9650\u8cc7\u6e90\u5167\u505a\u51fa\u6548\u7528\u6700\u5927\u7684\u884c\u70ba\u3002\u5176\u5be6\u9019\u883b\u8cbc\u8fd1\u6211\u5011\u7684\u751f\u6d3b\uff0c\u6709\u591a\u5c11\u9322\u5c31\u6c7a\u5b9a\u505a\u4ec0\u9ebc\u4e8b\u3002\u5047\u8a2d\u6211\u53ea\u6709\u4e00\u5343\u5143\uff0c\u6211\u6703\u5728\u9019\u4e00\u5343\u5143\u7684\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\uff0c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u8981\u5148\u5403\u51b0\u3001\u8cb7\u8863\u670d\u3001\u9084\u662f\u770b\u96fb\u5f71\uff0c\u505a\u51fa\u6703\u8b93\u81ea\u5df1\u6700\u958b\u5fc3\u7684\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3002<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

\n
\n

\"\u554f\"\u7814\u7a76\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7684\u300c\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u300d\u6709\u4f55\u56f0\u96e3\uff1f<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\u7b54\"\u8a08\u91cf\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u9818\u57df\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f88\u591a\u5b78\u8005\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u689d\u4ef6\u5047\u8a2d\u4e0b\uff0c\u9032\u884c\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u984c\u76ee\uff0c\u904b\u7528\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u4f86\u8a08\u7b97\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u6211\u6703\u5c08\u9580\u7814\u7a76\u7d66\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u300c\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u300d\uff0c\u9019\u8ddf\u6211\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u80cc\u666f\u6709\u95dc\u3002\u901a\u5e38\u6211\u662f\u627e\u4e00\u500b\u5df2\u7d93\u6574\u7406\u597d\u7684\u6a23\u672c\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u770b\u770b\u6211\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5206\u6790\u9019\u4e9b\u8cc7\u6599\u80fd\u5426\u56de\u7b54\u65b0\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff1b\u6216\u662f\u540c\u4e00\u5957\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u61c9\u7528\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\uff0c\u6703\u5206\u6790\u51fa\u4ec0\u9ebc\u6a23\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n

\n

\u6700\u56f0\u96e3\u7684\u662f\u627e\u5230\u5927\u5bb6\u611f\u8208\u8da3\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u627e\u5230\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5de5\u5177\u3002<\/strong><\/h4>\n<\/blockquote>\n

\u7814\u7a76\u65b0\u7684\u554f\u984c\u6642\uff0c\u4e0d\u898b\u5f97\u6709\u73fe\u5b58\u7684\u6578\u5b78\u5de5\u5177\u53ef\u76f4\u63a5\u5957\u7528\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u6709\u6642\u5019\u770b\u4e0d\u51fa\u4f86\u54ea\u500b\u6578\u5b78\u5de5\u5177\u53ef\u4ee5\u5f15\u7528\u3002\u6709\u6642\u5019\u6211\u5011\u5927\u6982\u7684\u60f3\u6cd5\u90fd\u6709\u4e86\uff0c\u4f46\u56f0\u96e3\u5728\u65bc\u8981\u60f3\u8fa6\u6cd5\u628a\u4e2d\u9593\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u8b49\u660e\u88dc\u9f4a\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"

\u554f\u53ca\u652f\u6301\u81ea\u5df1\u7814\u7a76\u7d71\u8a08\u65b9\u6cd5\u7684\u52d5\u529b\uff0c\u8a31\u80b2\u9032\u55ae\u7d14\u5730\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u89ba\u5f97\u5b78\u65b0\u6771\u897f\u883b\u5feb\u6a02\u7684\uff01\u300d
\u651d\u5f71\u2502\u5f35\u8a9e\u8fb0<\/p><\/div>\n

\"\u554f\"\u5982\u4f55\u7a81\u7834\u7814\u7a76\u6c92\u9032\u5c55\u7684\u56f0\u5883\uff1f<\/b><\/h2>\n

\"\u7b54\"\u7576\u7136\uff0c\u7406\u8ad6\u8b49\u660e\u4e0d\u51fa\u4f86\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6703\u5f88\u5931\u843d\u3001\u5f88\u7169\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u505a\u53ef\u4ee5\u653e\u9b06\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\u3002\u6211\u5728\u7f8e\u570b\u8b80\u66f8\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u662f\u900f\u904e\u716e\u98ef\u66ab\u6642\u812b\u96e2\u7814\u7a76\u4e0a\u7684\u4e0d\u6109\u5feb\u3002\u5f9e\u8cb7\u4ec0\u9ebc\u83dc\u3001\u600e\u9ebc\u8655\u7406\u3001\u5230\u770b\u5230\u6210\u54c1\uff0c\u9019\u904e\u7a0b\u90fd\u8981\u5c08\u5fc3\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u82e5\u5206\u5fc3\uff0c\u5207\u83dc\u6642\u53ef\u80fd\u6703\u5207\u5230\u81ea\u5df1\u3002<\/span><\/p>\n

\u56de\u81fa\u7063\u5f8c\u6211\u6539\u505a\u7f8a\u6bdb\u6c08\uff0c\u9019\u4e5f\u9700\u8981\u5f88\u5c08\u5fc3\uff0c\u4e0d\u7136\u91dd\u6703\u6233\u5230\u624b\u3002\u9019\u4e9b\u7f8a\u6bdb\u6c08\u6709\u4e9b\u9001\u7d66\u670b\u53cb\uff0c\u6709\u4e9b\u6703\u7fa9\u8ce3\u4e26\u6350\u7d66\u6d41\u6d6a\u52d5\u7269\u82b1\u5712<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n

\"\"

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\u5716\u7247\u4f86\u6e90\u2502\u77ee\u9165\u9165\u624b\u4f5c\u7f8a\u6bdb\u6c08<\/p><\/div>\n

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 <\/p><\/blockquote>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n

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 <\/p>\n<\/div>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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